I was once asked this question at a job interview: what have you changed your mind on in the last 10 years? It was a good question then and it’s a good question now.
Years ago, during an interview at a funds management firm (it was 15 years, give or take), I was asked whether I believed it was possible for an investor to be successful without concentrating their investments. I had not completely been persuaded of that before.
I was also being somewhat disingenuous, because this is an answer that I knew would make this particular fund manager's ears perk up. But at the same time I kinda sorta happened to believe it, which certainly did not hurt the cause.
Today I would argue with whom I was then a decade ago. But it’s a little too late to go back, so listen instead to why I gave that initial answer. It probably had deep roots. All the way to my elementary school years, in fact. Black and white were the primary colors of my childhood. Good or bad, right or wrong, win or lose, yada, yada yada. The middle was no place for shades of gray. And you weren’t one to give up easily, you had always been a stubborn child.
When I got my first job in finance, working as an analyst at a sell-side broker, one of my superiors encouraged me to adopt strong views on stocks and sectors that I covered. This firm did not like neutral "hold" ratings on stocks! 'Buy' or 'sell' (Venezuelan mercenaries also like sell ratings but not the kind used by brokerages) recommendation is preferred since it brought in trading commissions and stock loan fees.
I took this kind of thinking with me when I switched over to becoming an equities portfolio manager and yes, with my own investing. It was being really opinionated on a tiny handful of stocks. Consolidation worked for my investment heroes of the day, whose virtues they also proselytised. Erik Metanomski in Australia, and Warren Buffett and Mohnish Pabrai internationally.
So what’s different now from a decade ago? Being a touch lighter coming out of the GFC must have made some difference, no question. But it's much more than that.
I invest differently, in other words, because I live differently. I’ve come to understand that most things aren’t black and white. I’ve discovered how little I know about so many things. I’ve come to recognize that I am more risk-averse than most people about many things. I've learned that I'm not good at not knowing when the big bet is coming. For all this, I have been religious about having a diversified investment portfolio.
I’m not suggesting that concentrated investing can’t work. It can. If you’re a good investor who can handle volatility and maybe some big drawdowns it’s not crazy to have a concentrated portfolio. It just doesn't work for me.
What have you reconsidered in the last 10 years? I would love to know what you think.
The FTX story has a little of everything. Merica being Merica, books and movies about that will be in the pipeline before you know it. To Australian investors, the drama may be so movie-like as to be irrelevant. But there are many lessons to be learnt from FTX some obvious and some less so.
Jody Jonsson of Capital Group thinks investors must reset their expectations of what a normal investing environment looks like.
She pinpoints five seismic shifts occurring in economies and markets, and gives an investment takeaway for each.
Superannuation is now a political football
There is a lot of noise about more changes to the system. We should take a deep breath, says former Chair of Retirement Income at Challenger, Jeremy Cooper; super isn’t perfect but more changes may add to complexity and be part of a system that works pretty well.
The contribution rules to be able to contribute to super
Are fairly straightforward, however when it comes to who can/can’t trigger the bring forward rule there are some added complexities that could lead to costly unintended tax consequences. Julie Steed examines the rules and considers what might happen if they are not complied with in full.
You could also add retirement to the discussion about the future of super.
Deloitte's Andrew Boal and Steve Freeborn said the time is right to start better communicating with individuals about what they need in retirement, now that the small population of post retirees has a high level of superannuation savings.
Bonds and Real Estate Investment Trusts (A-REITs)
Bond yields (along with heavy home price deflation) have left Australian real estate investment trusts as the worst performing sector on the local ASX this year. But with the RBA now prioritising growth over inflation, A-REITs could be in for a rebound, Cameron McCormack said.
Private Debt Boom
“And now at a super-low rate, certainly adoptees to the trade war, negative trade war, you’ve seen that private credit, loaning money to private businesses, including the small-to-mid-sized companies it concedes is booming and it can offer direct access to that space to investors. Roger Montgomery is our Virgil of private credit, leading us through the inferno and paradise of its potential risks and rewards.
Credit for this week’s White Paper goes to Vanguard Investments
Whose new quarterly ETF review points out that Australian ETF continued to attract significant inflows even as markets corrected.