Scott Morrison phoned Anthony Albanese to concede defeat in the 2022 election at about 10.30pm on Saturday night. With voting continuing the next day, it was looking as though Labor would end up not short by about 76 seats, the magical number for a majority government. It was 18 years ago, in 2004, when the same Prime Minister had won consecutive elections.
Scott Morrison stepped down as Liberal leader but declared he would not resign as the member for Cook.
Although PM-elect Albanese and his supporters can justifiably be delighted by the results, Labor secured only 32% of the primary vote against 43% for Kevin Rudd in 2007. The difference has shifted to independents and the Greens, in a significant move towards a third force in Australian politics.
Teal-seat swings from Liberals are Goldstein 13.1%, Kooyong 6.4% (Treasurer Josh Frydenberg survives), Wentworth 6.6%, Curtin 13.4%. In my own seat of North Sydney, that swing will be around 14%, off the back of what was a very well-run, grass roots, volunteer campaign for candidate Kylea Tink. One of the big stories of the night was the role of women in winning many seats, but also voting for the kind of candidates they want. And here as my friends at the booth wait for the results in Kirribilli Club close to my place, Tink Volunteers
Speaking on the ABC's coverage and in answer to questions about the losses in inner city Sydney, Liberal Senator Simon Birmingham said his party had to elect more women and was paying the price in the choice of Katherine Deves in Warringah given her views on trans issues.
“Every seat the Liberal Party lost was lost to a female candidate, and so there is a real opportunity gap there for us. I think it sends a message about what Australians believe when it comes to issues of respect, of inclusion, of diversity.”
Once the champagne stops flowing, it will be the challenges of the economy and managing foreign policy that will quickly confront Albanese and his new Treasurer Jim Chalmers. The latter was: he is dealing with the “trickiest economic conditions inherited by an incoming government since the Second World War”.
Let’s stop and take a very quick checklist of the challenges the new cabinet will face.
- Central banks late to the game raising interest rates to quell inflation, the Reserve Bank expected to hike rates 0.25% most months of 2022.
- Gross debt forecast to hit $1.2 trillion with permanent deficits of up to $80 billion a year, the election’s spending promises not matched with new sources of revenue.
- The possibility of declining house prices and continuing problems in the construction industry linked to supply shortages.
- Recession fears, especially for the US consumer confidence is collapsing in Australia. China is a major point of interest in a number of ways, including its economic slowdown and expansion into the Pacific region.
- Low immigration and so many jobs from pandemic spending: ie the wildly generous HomeBuilder scheme.
- Increasing energy and food prices, though not as bad as some parts of Europe (UK inflation is 9%).
- And although the headline number a 3.9% unemployment rate, confirmed last week was good news, low wages growth not keeping pace with inflation means a lot of households haven’t benefited from job availability.
On the other hand, the Australian government spends more than $600 billion a year, and surely a new government could identify some cost savings. Labor has also indicated there will be heavy reductions in the millions spent on consultants each year. Well, given the Morrison Government’s record of spending on projects in specific electorates which had not been supported by Infrastructure Australia, there is a shitload of savings to be had there.
And Australia is experiencing demand for commodities at high prices, with conservative numbers in the budget probably meaning tax revenues are underestimated.
Speaking before party faithful gathered at the Canterbury-Hurlstone Park RSL Club, not far from his Marrickville home, Albanese noted that “the son of a single mum disability pensioner who grew up in public housing down the road could stand in front of you as Prime Minister”. He went on to say, “The doors of opportunity are open to everyone, no matter where you live, or where you come from in Australia.”
They want something way different to the ‘bulldozer’ style of Scott Morrison, which is what the millions who voted him in were after. While Albanese ran a small target campaign, two big policy differences will centre on climate and an anti-corruption commission.
