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The Australian Market Is Set To Open Higher As Futures Were Up

The Australian Market Is Set To Open Higher As Futures Were Up
The Australian Market Is Set To Open Higher As Futures Were Up

Australian shares are poised to open higher after a surge on Wall Street. Investor worries were alleviated by a decline in oil prices and a restatement of the U.S. central bank’s resolve to fight inflation.

ASX futures had also been up 29 points or 0.43 percent at 6752 by 8:00am AEDT on Thursday morning, indicating the markets would open higher.

U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday, even as investors grappled with the risks to the global economy. The S&P 500 was up 1.8%. The Dow Jones industrial average advanced 1.4 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 2.1 percent. All of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors rose, except for energy shares.

Stocks and commodities have slumped worldwide for three weeks in a row now amid triple fears of the world economy.

In commodities, oil prices slumped to a pre-Ukraine invasion low. The international benchmark Brent crude dropped 5.2 percent to $88 a barrel. “We’re seeing concerns about Chinese demand in the market right now,” said Stewart Glickman, senior equity analyst and energy sector head at CFRA Research. “Emerging markets drive the bulk of incremental demand for oil on an annual basis,” Mr. Glickman said. “When China slams on the brakes hard to its economy with its intolerance on Covid-19, that erodes forecast demand. Gold, for its part added 0.06%, trading for US$1,718.06.

In local bond markets, the yield on 2-year Australian government bonds was at 3.02% and the yield on 10-year Australian government bonds was at 3.70%. In overseas trading, the yield on the 2-year US Treasury was up to 3.43% the yield on the 10 year US Treasury note was down at 3.26%.

The Aussie fell to 67.65 US cents against the greenback from 67.34 at the last close. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against 16 other currencies, inched up to 101.36.

Asia

Chinese shares finished higher, as investors chewed on August trade figures. “Notably, shipment growth to major destinations across the board improved, export growth of consumer items and anti-Covid goods also improved notably,” says UBS North Asia economist William Deng. He figures China’s export shipments may pick up in the next few months “assuming the impact from temporary port suspension starts to clear.” The Shanghai Composite Index, a key index of blue chips and broader shares, rose 0.1 percent to 3246.29, while the Shenzhen Composite gained 0.5 percent to 2123.20, and the ChiNext Price Index, which measures stocks on the Shenzhen exchange, rose 1.2 percent to 2570.80. Auto stocks posted broad gains. BYD Co. shares were up 3.6%, Great Wall Motor added 0.8% and SAIC Motor fell 0.1%.

Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng Index tumbled 1.4% to 18930.65, on bearish sentiment for Asian stocks. The soft lead from Wall Street equities, along with a drop in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index should fuel a bit of profit taking in Chinese stocks, says IG market strategist Jun Rong Yeap in a note. Decliners include ENN Energy and Xinyi Glass Holdings each down 2.8%, and Shenzhou International Group, which is down 2.7%. Tech stocks are down, too. Meituan is down 2.1% and Tencent Holdings is trading 2.0% lower. Among the few gainers are Longfor Group, up 1.7%.

Stocks in Japan finished lower, weighed down by declines in shipping and energy stocks, as worries persist about the Fed’s tightening and economic outlook. Major shipper Nippon Yusen fell 7.9% and oil explorer Inpex slipped 2.8%. Automakers rise Meanwhile, auto stocks are higher thanks in part to a recent weakening in the yen. The Nikkei Stock Average drops 0.7% to 27430.30. The dollar rose to a new 24 year high of 144.38, but it was recently 144.02, up from 142.79 late Tuesday in New York. Economic numbers take center stage, with U.S. trade numbers due later in the day. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is up one basis point, at 0.245 percent.

Europe

European stocks were mixed at the close after broad declines early in the session, when they followed a rebound among United States stocks. The pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.6%, the French CAC 40 was flat and the German DAX added 0.3%.

Ubisoft Entertainment dropped 17% after China’s Tencent Holdings struck a deal to increase its stake in the company, risking putting the quash on a full sale of the French game maker. Energy and mining shares drop as oil and gas prices and copper prices fall. Utility stocks surges, led by Austrian electricity company Verbund, amid market speculation on regulation changes in response to Europe's energy crisis.

The FTSE 100 closed 0.67% lower on Wednesday after mining and oils stocks came under pressure. “Quiet markets abound and it seems the momentum in terms of selling equity has faded somewhat, but the FTSE 100 never managed to make up lost ground due to lagging commodity stocks,” says IG Group PLC chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp in a research note. “OPEC+’s attempt to message earlier in the week has clearly not worked, and we’ve seen oil prices fall all over again, with recessionary fears the dominant motive at the moment,” Mr. Beauchamp said. While the likes of European and U.S. markets have settled down, the FTSE 100’s exposure to commodities is once again reverting from a help to a hindrance, he says.

North America

Major U.S. stock benchmarks rose on Wednesday, even as investors weighed risks to the global economy. The S&P 500 was up 1.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.4 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 2.1 percent. All of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 ended higher, except for energy stocks.

Though stocks and commodities have plunged for three successive weeks, pressure comes from concerns about three prongs of the world economy. In China, Covid-19 restrictions are bottlenecking activity and wreaking havoc with global supply chains. An energy crisis in Europe is shuttering parts of industry and saddling governments with huge bills.

In the United States, the problem for markets is a different one. For some investors, the problem may be the economy is too strong, which will keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to help slow inflation down. Wednesday’s action could indicate that sentiment is shifting.

“It was Groundhog Day again, and today, for the first time in a few weeks, the market is looking at positive economic data as good instead of bad, because it means the Fed will tighten even more,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR Inc. “When you get counterintuitive action like we have been, punishing good news, that can only happen for so long — today people are figuring they overshot it.”

The good-case scenario, in which the Fed controls inflation without sinking the economy into recession, also depends on the economy continuing to grow at a decent clip, Mr. Hogan said. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields also paused their recent climb, offering some solace to investors worried that rates might rise to even more restrictive levels, he said.

Chinese trade data revealed that outbound shipments rose 7.1% in August from a year earlier, down from an 18% advance in July. From a year earlier, China’s imports rose 0.3 percent, compared with 2.3 percent growth in July.

And the export numbers are indicative of a softer global growth rise, while the import figures could be seen as evidence that the lockdowns are taking a toll on demand in China, said BNP Paribas Asset Management strategist Daniel Morris. “You are potentially losing your second-largest driver of global growth, probably as big as China, because Covid just feels like it’s never-ending in terms of the restrictions,” he said.

Investors dissected another set of numbers on the U.S. economy on Wednesday, with the Fed’s publication of its regular summary of economic anecdotes gathered from each of the central bank’s 12 districts.

Comments from the so-called beige book showed ideas of relatively resilient economic strength to this point, maybe more relative to a bleaker forward outlook that investors were considering. And, wage growth, too, faced off against a general slowdown in price gains in a number of the Fed’s 12 districts.

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